Week #22 Email Update: An honest look at where inflation really is – from Brandon on Sept 17th
We’re headed into Week 39 of 2022 like a soaring eagle.
Here’s your weekly roundup with things that give you an edge to win in your business and your life:
- Community announcements & shoutouts. We landed a sponsor!
- New EDGE podcast episodes that will move you and your business forward. INCLUDING…the study on how viewing cute images will increase your focus and performance.
- An honest look at inflation and what’s really happening. I researched it for us!
- A book worth reading that reveals how a company grew to be worth over $3 billion that only sells 15 products. All of them priced under $7.
- A movie worth watching that will give you perspective.
- An investment report we received this past week that reported they’re up 25% compared to the S&P YTD.
- This email took 3.5 hours to research, write, edit, format and create. It’s packed with valuable information for you.
Welcome the 47 new subscribers to this newsletter who joined since last week. We’re grateful to have you here! We’re 14,222 strong!
Thank you ConvertKit for sponsoring this newsletter. We’ve been with them from the early days and love their service. Highly recommend! You’ll see their ad below.
Worth Listening on EDGE
|Talking snacks with Betty Lu CEO of Confetti Snacks|
Thoughtful Snacking Can Change the World with Betty Lu CEO of Confetti Snacks | Ep. 394
Betty shares her story how she was traveling around the world on a planned nine year trip with her Mother when she cut it short because of an unexpected a-ha moment she had at the top of a mountain with her healthy homemade snacks that are now taking the world by storm.
Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
7 Business Plan Must Haves | Ep. 398
Seven business plan must haves whether you’re starting a new business, launching a new product or service, or updating your business plan to get ready for next quarter or next year.
Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
Paying in Gold with Jason Cozens CEO of Glint | Ep. 399
Jason and Brandon talk about using gold as a currency, why it may be better than any other method of payment, and why Jason started Glint.
Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
The Power of Kawaii | Ep. 400
A Kawaii image study that showed how looking at cute images can increase your focus and performance. He describes exactly how you can use a specific quick exercise to increase your focus and performance.
Best to Watch on YouTube because of the cute images
Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
On Business Podcast
Are Entrepreneurs Born or Made? | Ep. 6
Danielle and Brandon talk about entrepreneurship. They discuss if you can learn to be an entrepreneur or if you have to be born with the entrepreneurship “gene”.
Listen on Apple Podcasts
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An Honest Look at Inflation
All the news articles you read are reporting that inflation is going through the roof and the world is about to end. Those headlines will earn clicks, but are they true?
I set out to discover for myself if what the news is reporting is true. I went to the source, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s an amazing source of information.
Based on August 2022 numbers, if you feel like you’re paying more for airfare, gas at the pump, and household energy you’re right! They’re up over 21% in the last twelve month.
Airfare is up 33.4%, gas is up 25.6%, household energy is up 21.2%, all from twelve months ago.
Personally I’ve noticed it most at the supermarket where prices are up 13.5%. That adds up over the course of a month.
Interesting enough, I haven’t noticed it as much eating out. But, then again, when eating out I’ve pretty much accepted that whatever its costs is fine because we don’t have to do the dishes and clean up.
To save you from reading a wall of words, I’ve provided you the chart below that gives a good picture of what exactly is going on with inflation in different segments of the economy.
|Where Inflation is Happening and Where It’s Not|
This Should Not Be Shocking
The fact that inflation is happening shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. When you print more dollars and put them into circulation at the rate that was happening during the pandemic, about the only thing you can count, other then the money coming off the printing press, is that more of them in circulation will decrease the value of the dollar. And what naturally follows is that it takes more dollars to buy the same goods and services.
While run away inflation is a real risk, so is deflation. That sounds crazy to say when we’re talking about some prices increasing as much as 33%, but it can happen. The last time was between 2007-2008.
Here’s how it can happen: prices come down as a result of decreased demand. As prices decrease to find the price point where buyers will buy, they can go below the cost of producing those goods and services.
At that point those businesses can’t make money. They need cash, but it’s harder for them to borrow money or simply too expensive because of the high interest rates which are in place to counter inflation in the first place. Ultimately, companies go out of business.
As companies go out of business the unemployment rate starts to increase. As people lose jobs they can’t pay their bills. One of those bills is likely a mortgage. As people are late or worse, default on their mortgages, banks’ balance sheets start to get out of balance. Then banks start to fail.
I don’t want to paint a dooms day picture, but does this situation sound familiar? If not, Google what happened in 2007-2008 for more details.
Just like inflation, when deflation happens it can get out of control fast, really fast.
If you want to see a situation where exactly that happened other than 2007-2008, go further back and look at the 1929 collapse of the markets and the economy.
While the situation in 1929 began as a recession, demand for goods kept going down, prices dropped and it all came crashing down. No pun intended.
We have many more controls in place than we did in 1929. But, make no mistake, the Federal Reserve has their work cut out for them with this situation. They’ll need to thread the needle. Its’ going to be dicey, but I’m still betting on America.
To make us all feel a little better and end on a more positive note, we’re not in the worst shape compared to some other countries.
When I was talking with Jason Cozens, the CEO of Glint, on EDGE Episode 399 about paying in gold, he explained that inflation in the UK last month was running 10%+ and seemed to still be picking up.
Crazy part of that conversation is that Jason was explaining that gold buys more than it did forty years ago compared to the dollar that only buys you about 10%. Should we go back to paying in gold? Jason thinks so, see what you think after listening.
* SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. DATA AS OF AUGUST 2022, YAHOO FINANCE
In-N-Out Burger: A Behind-the-Counter Look at the Fast-Food Chain That Breaks All the Rules
by Stacy Perman
Drive by any In-N-Out Burger and you’ll find a line inside and at the drive through. A few times I’ve gone to grab a double double, animal and protein style, I thought I’d be catching an “off hour” and not wait in line. Never happened!
This is a behind-the-counter look at the fast-food chain that breaks all the rules. This book is a the New York Times bestselling inside story of the family behind the California-based hamburger chain with a cult following large enough to rival the Grateful Dead’s.
A juicy unauthorized history of a small family run business-turned-big business titan now worth over $3 billion.
photo: National Geographic
World’s Biggest Great White on National Geographic Wild
Every so often it’s good to put yourself into perspective and feel just how small you really are. This documentary will do it for you.
The footage is amazing and sheer size of great whites that appear from the darkness will increase your heart rate just watching it on a screen.
Available on the National Geographic Channel
What I’m Writing About
While I’m still writing the book, more on that below, I also started writing an article for theInvesting section of the EDGE print newsletter because I received an email this week with a YTD update on one of our investments that had a shocking return.
We’re heavily invested in tech and the first half of the year we’ve taken a beating, down 30%+ at one point in our public stock portfolio. After today, it might be down more.
I’m not worried because if tech fails long term (15 -20 year horizon) we’re all in some trouble anyway.
Having said that I did buy a few stocks today (I’m writing this Friday night) because it feels like things are on sale.
Back to the investment update. The company explained that YTD it has outperformed the S&P by 25%.
Yes, you read that right, we’re up 25% this year from the S&P in this investment. And no, it’s not in energy. It’s in a market I didn’t expect to do well, but has.
Anyway, it will be in an upcoming edition of the EDGE print newsletter so subscribers can get in on the action. There’s still upside.
Quick book update. I started on the evening on June 16, 2022. I’ve been in editing mode and trying to make it shorter. I made a little progress this week as you’ll see below. Here’s my total words by week from the book I’m writing:
Week 1: 8,000 (+8,000)
Week 2: 30,641 (+22,641)
Week 3: 33,368 (+2,727)
Week 4: 33,123 (-245)
Week 5: 33,798 (+675)
Week 6: 32,948 (-850)
Week 7: 33,496 (+548)
Week 8: 31,572 (-1,924)
Week 9: 31,594 (+22)
Week 10: 31,594 (0)
Week 11: 31,642 (+48)
Week 12: 31,642(0)
Week 13: 31,642(0)
Week 14: 31, 241 (-401)
The Week Ahead at EDGE
- Three guest recording sessions for the EDGE podcast.
- Drop a new episode of On Business Podcast Tuesday.
- Send out the next version of this newsletter.
- Drop new episodes on the EDGE YouTube channel daily where you can catch the video version of episodes.
- Office hours on Tuesday night.
Thanks for reading. Here’s to a great weekend!
P.S. We support the podcast and this email newsletter through the sale of our Print Newsletter and How to Build a Business Plan in 13 Slides Online Course. When you have a minute please take a look at our offer and see if it’s for you.
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